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老龄化、收入不均和中国梦

21世纪网 Syed Murtaza Husain 2013-04-08 16:56:20  评论0 随时随地看新闻
核心提示:穆尔塔扎·赛义德认为,中期来看,中国正面临着一系列的挑战,很难想象如果不解决好收入不平等和人口老龄化的矛盾,如何实现“中国梦”。

编者按:本文作者Syed,Murtaza,Husain(穆尔塔扎·赛义德),现任(IMF)国际货币基金组织驻华代表处副代表,于2004年通过经济学家项目加入国际货币基金组织。赛义德先生广泛参与研究亚洲经济体,其中包括日本,韩国,香港及老挝。他的研究范围包括贸易,投资,不平等,财政的可持续性,以及金融外溢效应。

赛义德先生在本文详实论述了中国当前面临的“老龄化”的严峻考验与“贫富悬殊”的现实困境,并提出“展望未来,人口老龄化和工资上涨导致了劳动力市场条件紧缩,如果中国要保持竞争力,将需要更快的生产率增长。所以,随着中国新领导人试图在未来十年延续经济的增长势头,在最强的不利因素中,他们将必须面对收入不平等和人口变化”的主要观点。

China’s economic performance during the last three and a half decades has been spectacular. However, as a new generation of leaders assumes office, there are increasing concerns about its ability to sustain this record over the next 10 years. To do so, it is usually said that China needs to draw lessons from other countries on how to avoid the “middle-income trap”. However, there are no ready-made lessons that China can adopt. Instead, it will have to rely on home-grown solutions to attain convergence to advanced economy living standards. Over the medium-term, China faces a number of challenges, but it is hard to imagine that the “China Dream” can be realized without successfully negotiating two powerful forces income inequality and population aging.

中文对照:中国的经济表现在过去的35年里一直很抢眼。但新一代的领导人就职,未免有些担忧其能否在未来10年继续保持高速增长。为此,中国需要吸取其他国家如何避免“中等收入陷阱”的经验。然而,并没有现成的经验可供中国借鉴。因此,中国必须依靠本国的方法来实现达到发达经济体生活水平的目标。中期来看,中国正面临着一系列的挑战,很难想象如果不解决好收入不平等和人口老龄化的矛盾,如何实现“中国梦”。

Let us begin by reconsidering the middle-income trap. If we take US per capita income as a benchmark, four distinct groups emerge in the post-war era. The first group is the advanced economies, whose per capita income has converged with one another and toward that of the United States. The second is largely Eastern European and Latin American countries, who started at a broadly similar level as those in the first group, but fell away and only partly recovered. The third is those few economies that managed to break away from the low income group and made significant headway in converging to US per capita income, principally Korea and Taiwan Province of China. The final group consists of low and middle income countries that have only started to converge in the last decade, and includes China.

中文对照:让我们再次思考中等收入陷阱的问题。如果我们把美国人均收入作为基准,占后就会出现四组数据。其人均收入已经与美国趋同。第二组主要是东欧和拉美国家,其人均收入一开始与发达经济体在同一水平上,但随后有所跌落,只有部分回升。第三组是那些设法脱离低收入并成功地在一定程度上向美国人均收入趋同的国家。最后一组是低收入和中等收入国家,这些国家在过去的十年中已经开始向美国人均收入趋同,包括中国。

Two broad lessons emerge from these experiences. First, political stability and good governance are necessary conditions for convergence. Indeed, poor governance in Latin American countries manifested in corruption and high income inequalityand political instability in Eastern European countries are widely cited as impediments to their development. Second, the few economies that managed to break away and converge toward advanced standards did so on the basis of high levels of investment and a matching rapid pick up in exports. So far, China has done very well with respect to the first lesson and has internalized the second, with investment and exports already the two main engines of its traditional growth model.

中文对照:从中可以提出两大经验。第一,政治稳定和适度管制是趋同的必要条件。事实上,拉美国家管制的缺失,东欧国家的腐败、收入不平等和政治动荡,是造成他们不能成为发达经济体的重要因素。第二,那些设法脱离低收入的国家,为数很少,只有韩国和中国台湾。这两个经济体的主要驱动力,是大规模投资和相应的快速增长的出口。到目前为止,中国已经成功仿效第一条经验。中国正在内化第二条经验。投资和出口已经成为传统增长模式的两个主要引擎。

However, this can no longer work. The dramatic rise in inequality over the last two decades has contributed to some recent deterioration in public perceptions of governance. In terms of the drivers of China’s growth, exports will not be as buoyant as external demand remains sluggish in the wake of the global crisis, input costs rise, and gains in global market share slow with the increasing size of the Chinese economy. And at close to half of output, China’s investment level is already about 10 percent of GDP higher than that of other Asian economies prior to the Asian crisis. According to a recent IMF paper, this elevated level of investment is in part made possible through financial controls that result in a hidden transfer from households and SMEs to large corporates and banks of 4 percent of GDP per year. Damagingly, this resource transfer suppresses household incomes and consumption and reduces the efficiency of capital allocation, both of which limit China’s medium-term growth potential. Going forward, tightening labor market conditions due to population aging and rising wages will necessitate faster productivity growth if China is to remain competitive. So as China’s new leaders attempt to prolong the economy’s growth momentum over the next decade, among the strongest headwinds they will have to confront are inequality and demographic change. Let us take a closer look at these two phenomena.

中文对照:但是,上述经验已经失效。在过去二十年急剧扩大的收入不平等已经导致了公众对管理的不满。就中国增长的动力来说,由于全球危机之后外部需求持续疲软,出口将不会快速提振,投入成本上升,而且随着中国经济规模扩大,获得全球市场份额日渐缓慢。接近一半的输出,中国的投资水平已经比亚洲金融危机前其他亚洲经济体还要高出10%。国际货币基金组织的最近一份工作论文显示,中国目前正在通过金融管制,实现从家庭和中小企业到大型企业和银行的隐性转移,这部分大致相当于每年GDP的4%,从而支持当前的投资水平。更为严重的是,这种资源转移抑制了家庭收入和消费,降低了资本配置效率,而这两者限制了中国中期的增长潜力。展望未来,人口老龄化和工资上涨导致了劳动力市场条件紧缩,如果中国要保持竞争力,将需要更快的生产率增长。所以,随着中国新领导人试图在未来十年延续经济的增长势头,在最强的不利因素中,他们将必须面对收入不平等和人口变化。让我们进一步分析上述两个现象。

Since the reform and opening up period, China has made remarkable strides in lifting people’s incomes and reducing poverty. However, while absolute poverty has been substantially reduced, it has come at the cost of raising relative inequality, dampening this remarkable achievement and leaving China among the most unequal economies in the world. As a result, China’s growth has been less inclusive than in many other developing regions, particularly Latin America.

中文对照:自改革开放以来,中国在提升人们的收入和减少贫困方面,取得了令人瞩目的成绩。目前,中国的绝对贫困人口已大幅减少,但财富不均这一问题却日益显现。这不仅是中国在致力解决温饱问题上所取得成就的“瑕疵”,还令中国脱不了“贫富悬殊”的帽子。而且,相比起许多其他发展中地区,中国经济增长的包容性也一直稍显逊色,尤其是与拉丁美洲相比。

(责任编辑:李嘉琦)
 
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